Russia’s economy is projected to grow by 1.5–2% in 2025, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
“Overall, we expect economic growth of around 1.5–2% this year – that’s our forecast for 2025,” he said.
The Ministry of Economic Development, however, anticipates a higher GDP expansion of up to 2.5% in 2025. Official figures show that Russia’s economy grew by 1.5% from January to May but slowed to 1.2% year-on-year in May.
The Bank of Russia’s forecast is more conservative, predicting growth of just 1–2% – a sharp decline from last year’s 4.3% increase. Between 2014 and 2024, Russia’s nominal GDP grew by 4.8%. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Russia’s GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) accounted for 3.55% of the global economy in 2024, making it the world’s fourth-largest economy by PPP after China, the United States, and India.
“For Russia, annual growth below 3% is now considered slow – what was once called stagnation,” said Sergei Khestanov, an economist and associate professor at RANEPA. “Still, in challenging times, any growth is better than decline.”