Any forecasts of the economy’s future development and post-COVID recovery may be erratic. Currently, they are all based on an assumption of the efficiency of vaccines and anticipation of the end of the pandemic by middle of 2021.
Yet the real scenario may be much different, Anton Struchenevsky, Chief Economist at Sberbank CIB, believes. “If something goes wrong, the vaccine is not as efficient as now assumed, for example, economy will be zigzagging and that is the major uncertainty factor,” he says.
If that really happens, new coronavirus waves should be expected as well as subsequent economic recessions. It is quite possible, a sustainable development may be forgotten altogether.
“It is likely the economy will be adjusting to the situation and a recession will not be too substantial, but there will be no sustainable development which is the basis for all current economic forecasts. Economy will in turns keep growing and falling,” Struchenevsky thinks. In an environment like that, volatility in oil demand and hence in oil price may be experienced. Still, oil it will hardly drop below $40 per barrel.