Which economic policies were the most successful in 2022? Invest Foresight interviewed popular economic experts.
Nikita Maslennikov, Director of Economics and Finance, Institute of Modern Development
— The biggest success in 2022 is sort of obvious – the Russian economy contracted by half or one third of the projected economic decline, as estimated in March-April 2022. This was undoubtedly the success of the year, as Russia’s economy has shown its high adaptive capabilities.
Alexei Vedev, Head of Financial Studies Department, Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
— I believe that we can indeed cite certain macroeconomic achievements. Despite the record scale of external sanctions, the Russian economy managed to maintain stability in both the financial and real sectors. The overall result we are seeing now is a decline of about 3%, subsiding inflation and a relatively stable ruble exchange rate.
Igor Nikolayev, Economist, Chief Research Fellow, Economics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
— I would say the 3% contraction of the Russian economy and GDP was the failure of the year, but at the same time, it was also a success if we compare this with most forecasts made in March 2022, which said GDP would drop by about 8%.
Boris Kheifets, Professor, the Russian Government’s Financial University
— 2022 was definitely an extraordinary year for the economy, although the final outcomes are very different from what was expected in the first quarter. As a reminder, at that time, they predicted a 10% decline in GDP, but what we have now is 2-2.5%. Moreover, we expect the situation to change in 2023-2025. Inflation was also predicted at 20%, but it is only 11%, and may be even lower, when we calculate it for the year. And the fact that we managed to stabilize the economy, I believe it can be called the greatest economic achievement in 2022. As to the slowdown, as far as I remember, it is far from the worst in the world; certain highly developed countries have seen GDP shrink quite dramatically. Other achievements included the replacement of convertible currencies with national ones in foreign trade operations, the redirection of part of Russia’s exports to new markets (which is also important), as well as the use of non-standard instruments such as parallel imports.
Agvan Mikaelyan, Board Member, FinExpertiza
— I think GDP only shrinking 3% is an achievement. Yes, perhaps it is not very typical to say so, but the situation is also quite extraordinary. To be honest, I don’t remember anything similar in the world. No country has ever experienced such a pressure from sanctions. But the fact that we not only survived (and if you look at most of other important indicators, we have actually grown), this is very good. We have a huge trade surplus. The national currency strengthened dramatically. By the way (even if that was not entirely our own achievement), we also had a huge, record grain harvest at about 150 million metric tons this year – this is also something we have never seen before.
Nikita Krichevsky, Doctor of Economics, Full Professor, Economist
— Russia did post some economic achievements in 2022, although I would not refer to them as ‘successes.’ It rather was a balanced and adequate policy pursued by the Russian government to prevent a sharp drop. The whole world expected Russia to collapse, and some even said that the Russian economy would cease to exist by December. I don’t know what was in those people’s heads because it just couldn’t have happened. All the basic goods that satisfy our needs are produced within the country – light, heat, fuel, and food. We have it all available – native, Russian.
Sergey Suverov, Investment Strategist, Aricapital Management Company
— Our biggest economic achievement was that the Russian currency has held its ground, contrary to forecasts that the dollar “would surge to RUR150.” A strong ruble contributed to stable prices, meaning inflation did not go through the roof, but remained tolerable.