What failures in Russia’s economic policy were most noticeable in 2022? Invest Foresight interviewed economy experts.
Nikita Maslennikov, Director of Economics and Finance, Institute of Modern Development
— As concerns economic failures, with the current pressure of sanctions, what can we talk about? For me, the “lack of success” of the economic policy, as I would call it rather than a failure, is the fact that it has not been possible to drive forward private investment or work through all potential strategies and measures of support for investment. Largely, state defense orders account for the major part of the growth we see today. At the same time, investment is not growing organically, with quite vague prospects despite extensive action being taken.
Alexei Vedev, Head of Financial Studies Department, Yegor Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy
— I see several major economic failures. First of all, the destroyed logistics of industrial assembly facilities is the biggest. The second failure is disrupted transport operations, including tourism-related operations.
Igor Nikolayev, Economist, Chief Research Fellow, Economics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
— The 3-percent GDP drop and associated economic downfall is a tremendous failure, considering that in 2021, the Russian economy grew 4.7%. The 2022 federal budget was adopted based on the predicted growth of 3%. Instead, we ended up having a decline of around 3%. It is a failure.
Agvan Mikaelyan, Board Member, Finexpertiza
— The Russian economy faced a great number of artificially created challenges in 2022, so it is difficult to name something specific as a failure. The fact is that the entire external economic environment pushed us towards various failures and yet, there are no sectors where Russia failed explicitly. If we take the entire scope of macroeconomic indicators, besides the inflation rate of 11%, which is still not the highest in the world, and the 3% GDP decline, I would not label anything as a negative outcome.
Alexander Abramov, Professor, Department of Stock and Investment Markets, Higher School of Economics
— It is not that easy to name the biggest economic failure of the year. Perhaps the overall failure is anticipating long-term effects of sanctions in the form of technological disadvantage and compromised safety of Russian people’s savings. On a long-term horizon, all risks persist, which is, in my opinion, the most concerning expectation and outcome of 2022.
Nikita Krichevsky, Doctor of Economics, Full Professor, Economist
— There are two most serious economic failures. First, it is the irremovability of governing elites as concerns the economy. These are the same people who have been consistently failing to implement the president’s instructions. The second failure is import substitution.
Sergey Suverov, Investment Strategist, Aricapital Management Company
— The first economic failure is that the Russian economy is officially in recession. The second failure is the relocation of many skilled experts and people who are well off financially, which will lead to current and long-term challenges for the technological transformation of Russia’s economy and affect consumer activity. The mobilization has led to a shortage of personnel in a range of industries, which the Central Bank also spoke about.